Big Democratic Election Wins Defy Narratives Of Republican Strength
Big Democratic Election Wins Defy Narratives Of Republican Strength
Democrats have once again defied expectations with huge wins indicating wide support for the party's policy agenda, especially on abortion. Meanwhile, Republican extremism is being repudiated.
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Do you know what's a better reflection of voter sentiment than polls? Elections.
On Tuesday, off-year elections were held in states across the country. We gleaned some real-world insights into where the vast majority of Americans stand, and it’s not with Republicans.
In race after race, Democrats and their policies over-performed expectations and delivered key victories. Some of these races could prove to be prescient bellwethers for 2024. It was a revelatory day that debunked many poll-generated doom-and-gloom narratives.
Republicans and their policies continued the losing and underperforming streak we’ve seen in the vast majority of elections held since 2017. All evidence indicates that the policies Republicans are pushing, particularly their abortion bans, and the continued presence of Trump in our political arena is dragging down the Republican Party, not the other way around.
President Biden and the national Democratic Party platform appeared to have had no negative impact on state Democrats’ ability to win, and in many cases, they appear to have helped.
These wins are particularly remarkable given the alleged unpopularity of the incumbent president depicted in recent polls, particularly The New York Times/Siena College poll. I think it’s time that media outlets decide that they should base their narratives on elections consisting of millions of people and not on a few polls consisting of a few thousand survey respondents.
If polls didn’t exist, the dominating narrative in American politics would be about how Republicans are in total disarray after six consecutive years of major election losses and embarrassing underperformances, and their former president is now facing 91 criminal charges after inciting an insurrection. That’s the reality that was reaffirmed in the 2023 elections.
Let’s dive into the details of the results and what predictors we can discern for the 2024 election.
Republicans’ Extremist Agenda Rejected
By far, the most important issue in the biggest races on Tuesday was abortion. Voters spoke loud and clear: They do not want their rights to bodily autonomy infringed upon.
Since the Supreme Court court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, voters have responded at the ballot box. That trend continued in Tuesday’s elections.
In Kentucky, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won re-election in the deep-red state after campaigning on protecting abortion rights. Beshear won 52.5% of the vote, expanding on his win from 4 years ago and defeating Daniel Cameron by 5%. To put this massive win in perspective, Donald Trump won Kentucky with 62% of the vote in 2020, to Joe Biden’s 36%.
In Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin decided to double down on his abortion stance. Youngkin campaigned for multiple state legislature candidates, promising a 15-week abortion “restriction” - as he called it. Youngkin tested out the new terminology to reframe the abortion ban as less extreme. The result: Democrats maintained control of the state Senate and flipped the House of Delegates. Youngkin lost the entire General Assembly and is now a lame-duck governor for the rest of his term.
In Ohio, the Issue 1 ballot measure that enshrined abortion rights into the state’s Constitution passed with a wide margin. The ballot measure won with a clear majority of 56.6%. For context, Trump won 53% of the vote in Ohio in 2020. This is hardly a blue state.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic judge Daniel McCaffery won a seat on the State Supreme Court. McCaffery ran on protecting abortion rights in the face of growing right-wing threats. This maintained a Democratic majority on the court.
What we’re seeing is majority support among Americans for the protection of reproductive rights. The Republican Party is so totally out of touch on this issue, and yet they continue to seek to inflict their minority view on the majority.
Since Donald Trump won in 2016, Republicans have increasingly been losing suburban women voters. That pattern was played out again here in this year’s elections, with abortion at the forefront.
But abortion wasn’t the only issue on the ballot.
Andy Beshear, whose family brand has been credited for his fortitude in the state, didn’t just run on abortion rights - he also ran on some key Biden legislative victories and broader Democratic values.
Beshear took an unabashed pro-union stance, aligning with President Joe Biden. He also repeatedly touted the new projects that were enabled by the bipartisan infrastructure law signed by President Biden. Beshear appeared alongside President Biden and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at an event highlighting new bridge project funding generated from the infrastructure law.
Beshear vetoed the Kentucky Republican state legislature's sweeping anti-trans bill. This move was seen as politically risky in such a red state, especially as the Republican Party increasingly embraces anti-LGBTQ policies. GOP lawmakers, of course, overrode Beshear’s veto. Instead of being punished for his veto, Beshear expanded his election margin in his re-election race.
In Virginia, Republicans didn’t just run on a 15-week abortion ban. They also ran on the same culture wars that got Youngkin elected in 2021. This time, they failed. Republicans ran on a “parent’s rights” platform that targeted race and LGBTQ education, in a similar agenda to what Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has done in Florida. This culture war backfired as Democrats combated it head-on, Columnist Greg Sargent argued in the Washington Post.
Another example of the GOP culture wars taking an L can be seen in a little-discussed school board race in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Democrats flipped the Central Bucks School District School Board from a 6-3 GOP majority to a 6-3 Democratic one. The race became hotly contested after the previously GOP-controlled school board banned Pride flags in classrooms and books they deemed “sexualized.”
Across the country, we saw Republican extremism being rejected in favor of Democratic common sense.
A Historic Winning Streak For Democrats
Before we talk about what this means for 2024, we have to properly contextualize this moment. This week’s elections build on a six-year winning streak for Democrats. Since 2016, Republicans have been historically underperforming in every single national election, the majority of state-level elections, and special elections.
In 2018, Democrats made historic gains, taking back the House in a massive blue wave not seen since post-Watergate. In 2020, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris led Democrats to take back the White House, Senate, and the House. In 2022, Republicans under-performed, as Trump-backed election deniers lost. Republicans barely took the House majority, while Democrats expanded their majority in the Senate. Joe Biden had the best performance of an incumbent first-term Democratic president in a midterm since John F. Kennedy.
Democratic over-performance isn’t just happening in biennial national elections. It’s happening in special elections and local elections, too. I wrote about this in a column in The Independent this past September:
Democrats have been dominating in recent special elections. A FiveThirtyEight analysis found that in 30 special elections across the country this year, Democrats have outperformed expectations by an average of 11 points. It’s not just special elections. Axios also pointed out that Republicans are underperforming in federal, judicial, statewide, and local elections across the US.
Another positive indicator for Democrats is a Daily Kos analysis that found in 18 state legislative elections conducted in the first half of this year, Democrats have exceeded the 2020 presidential outcomes by an average margin of six points.
What Does This Indicate For 2024?
One thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that abortion will be another defining issue in the 2024 election. Given the election results since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats are well-positioned to win on this issue if they make reproductive rights a centerpiece of their campaigns.
When it comes to President Biden specifically, some may argue that the election results actually don’t contradict recent poll numbers. They might argue that Democrats and their policies are popular, but Joe Biden is not. I find that hard to fully buy. Voters like using down-ballot races to showcase their dissatisfaction with an unpopular incumbent. I find it hard to believe Democrats could perform this well if Biden is as unpopular as polls indicate.
There may be a systemic problem with polling today, as I’ve written about in The Independent piece I cited above. Remember the red wave that never hit our shores in 2022? I think, at the very least, it’s safe to say that Biden’s unpopularity is likely overestimated, and the unpopularity of the GOP and Trump are underestimated.
So what does this mean for 2024? There’s actually some insight we can gain from looking at the results in Virginia, which have proven to be predictive in recent years.
In 2019, Virginia Democrats won the state House and Senate. The same thing happened at the federal level the next year. In 2020, national Democrats won the US House and Senate.
In 2021, Virginia Republicans won the state House back but left the Senate with a slim Democratic majority. Once again, the same thing happened nationally the next year. In 2022, national Republicans won back the US House in a slim majority, leaving Democrats with a slim majority in the Senate.
If that same predictive Virginia trend were to hold true in 2024, Democrats would win the House back and maintain their Senate majority. Of course, it’s not that simple. The Senate has a very tough map for Democrats in 2024.
The November 5, 2024, election is now just under a year away, and a lot can change before then. Donald Trump faces multiple criminal trials and could very well be convicted - a development that the same NYT/Siena poll everyone freaked out about indicates would overwhelmingly swing all six battleground states back to Biden.
If we ignore polling and look at all the real-world results Democrats have seen in election after election: Republicans are on a six-year losing streak, dragged down by their extremist policies, authoritarianism, and embrace of Trump. Under this context, it’s reasonable to predict Democrats are on good footing heading into 2024.
Elections are won on contrasts. As we move closer to election day next year, the contrasts between the two parties will be brought to the forefront. It’ll be hard to ignore Donald Trump’s corruption as his trials dominate the news cycle and his unhinged authoritarian plans begin to get more public scrutiny.
If Democrats keep their heads down, ignore the noise, focus on the issues that matter to voters, and continue implementing the grassroots turnout strategies necessary to mobilize their base against Republican extremism, 2024 could be a repeat of 2020 - minus the attempted insurrection… Hopefully.
Baba, Glad I read this article from November 8th. You hit the nail on the head with national polls,
After 8 years (2015-2023), of politics in print, I can say I don't partake in any polls. Polls are for people that don't read. If you read enough you know the polling is baloney. Nothing to read here, is my thought everytime I read about polling. If they were accurate, we would actually know it.
Your article is well written bringing into it polling and the facts around the country on it.
Elections are the best indicator, they just can't accept reality and push the extreme narratives to force their constituents to worry and to nail biting, till they get their vote in. Are these elected that dense? Even if women are watching the news, they know the odds are with men and only men.
Supreme Court has set up the Republican party in their biased forced ruling on the War against women's body ownership. Republican takeover in highest court, by lying to get appointed. 🙄
Republicans appear to "don't think"
much.
So glad to read and view, the newer Gen Z generation is paying close attention.
God Bless my grandson's generation, good internet usage, by the young.