GOP Divisions Could Complicate Trump's MAGA Agenda
Steve Bannon is promising to "take down" Elon Musk. Trump has a razor-thin congressional majority with defiant deficit hawks. Trump's coalition has real fractures that could threaten his agenda.
Thank you for reading! In the face of unrelenting disinformation, clear truth-telling and independent media are a necessity. We have to spread the truth as forcefully as gaslighters spread their lies. If you value in-depth analysis through a pro-democracy lens, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber to my newsletter. Paid subscribers empower this work and gain access to exclusive community features. Your subscription makes a difference.
“He is a truly evil guy, a very bad guy. I made it my personal thing to take this guy down…. I will have Elon Musk run out of here by Inauguration Day.”
Is that an angry liberal raging about Elon Musk? No. That is Trump’s former Chief Strategist and influential fixture of the MAGA movement, Steve Bannon.
Bannon made those comments lambasting Musk in an Italian newspaper, Corriere della Sera, published over the weekend.
“Before he put money in, I was prepared to tolerate it – I’m not prepared to tolerate it anymore,” Bannon continued. “He will do anything to make sure that any one of his companies is protected or has a better deal or he makes more money. His aggregation of wealth, and then — through wealth — power: that’s what he’s focused on.”
Steve Bannon’s attacks on Elon Musk’s motives and threats to somehow oust him from Trump’s inner circle came after an online debate over H-1B visas late last month splintered the MAGA base. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy sparked the debate by essentially saying tech companies like to hire foreign workers because Americans raise their kids to be mediocre. Musk went further, insulting members of Trump’s base.
“[Musk] went out of his way to mock our movement as racist and retards, and he lost,” Bannon said. “We blew him out of the water. He won’t fight. He’s got the maturity of a little boy…” Bannon said that Musk had a “tremendous loss of credibility here in the United States, and quite frankly, the people around Trump are tired of it.”
Whether or not Musk has lost standing within Trump’s circle is yet to be seen, but what has been very clear is that this fight over H-1B visas spotlighted one of the many ideological fractures within the GOP. Taken together with the 38 Republicans who defied Trump in the debt ceiling vote during Trump’s government shutdown demands last month and the subtle divisions during the Spearker vote this month, you’re seeing a coalition that might be more fragile than it seems.
Donald Trump won a second term, but now he has to govern - which he’s terrible at. Trump is good at fear-mongering his way into power as an outsider. But once he gets into power, Trump has proven to be incompetent when it comes to managing his coalition while dealing with the complexities of governing.
Trump’s first term was defined by chaos and negligence. Now, as Trump is set to pursue an authoritarian agenda, infighting poses challenges to the absolute power he seeks. These fractures aren’t set in stone, and Trump is certainly working with a more united Republican Party than he was in 2017, but there’s enough here to be noteworthy.
We’re already seeing the first big legislative fight of Trump’s incoming term shape up.
There’s a debate within the Republican Party about whether to try and push Trump’s agenda through smaller pieces of legislation or “one powerful bill” that would include immigration, energy policies, implementing Trump’s tax plan, and potentially raising the debt ceiling. This would all happen through the budget reconciliation process, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate. Trump has been a confusing figure in this debate, landing on both sides of it at different times.
Trump can only afford to lose 3 Senate Republican votes, and his House majority is razor-thin. Any disagreements over the debt ceiling or any one piece of a potentially giant singular bill could doom it.
There’s a lot to keep an eye on as we approach the inauguration next week.
Let’s dive into these MAGA schisms in more detail.
Base MAGA Vs. Tech Bro MAGA
While Americans were celebrating the holidays, right-wing Twitter was deep in the throes of an ideological debate about American culture and immigration.
After right-wing influencer Laura Loomer attacked Trump’s selection of Sriram Krishnan as an advisor on artificial intelligence, it sparked a wider conversation about foreign workers who obtain H-1B visas to live in the United States.
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy began posting fierce defenses of the policy, triggering anger from Trump’s base when Ramaswamy basically sent a post that said tech companies hire these foreign workers because Americans raise their kids to be mediocre, calling it a “culture” problem. Musk also said that there was a talent shortage in America, but then, he kept posting…
Musk replied in agreement to a post calling the non-tech American right “retarded” and incapable of being trained for these roles. I thought it was fake when I first saw it, but it was real. But Musk didn’t stop there. Musk sent posts saying that there are “hateful, unrepentant racists” within the Republican Party - and they have to be removed, or they’ll be the downfall of the party.
MAGA erupted at the comments, but within days, Trump spoke out in favor of H-1B, and Musk showed up to Mar-a-Lago to celebrate New Year’s Eve. That was the last we heard of that debate, but it appears Bannon wants to revive it.
Bannon broached the issue in the Italian interview I quoted at the beginning of this piece. “This thing of the H-1B visas, it’s about the entire immigration system is gamed by the tech overlords. They use it to their advantage. The people are furious,” Bannon said.
“Peter Thiel, David Sachs, Elon Musk, are all white South Africans,” Bannon claimed. “He should go back to South Africa. Why do we have South Africans, the most racist people on earth, white South Africans, we have them making any comments at all on what goes on in the United States?”
Bannon’s choice to rope in other Silicon Valley venture capitalists, Peter Thiel and David Sachs, was interesting. He’s clearly trying to draw a line between the MAGA base and the tech wing of the MAGA coalition.
Now, of course, Bannon is likely just angry he doesn’t have a position in Trump’s White House this time, but his positioning is worth paying attention to. There is anti-elite sentiment within the MAGA base - which has oddly ignored the billionaire status of Trump, Musk, and their rich allies. If Bannon channels that anti-elite sentiment toward Musk and seeks to fracture their alliance, it could have a huge impact.
These could prove to be fault lines that surface during immigration, tax, and wider policy debates. Also, if Musk does, in fact have a falling out with Trump or begins to further sour on parts of the MAGA base, would he reposition Twitter/X? How would that impact the information ecosystem? What happens to the DOGE commission?
That’s getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but it’s worth relaying because if this relationship does fracture, it could change the course of the second Trump term.
Speaker Vote & Shutdown Fight Spotlight Challenges Of Narrow House Majority
This year started with a vote re-electing Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) as Speaker of the House. Although this didn’t go through a series of ballots like Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker vote, there were still indications of divisions.
Over a dozen House Republicans entered the vote uncommitted. While they did end up coming around, it did showcase just how narrow the House majority is.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who did not vote for Johnson, has been a vocal critic of Johnson and a voice for the remaining deficit hawks within the House GOP caucus.
Massie was among the 38 Republicans who publicly defied Trump’s demands on the debt ceiling vote during the shutdown debacle in December.
This defiance indicates Trump may not have as strong an iron grip on the Republican Party as he believes. The fact that 38 House Republicans defied Trump and voted no on this bill is remarkable, especially given the immense power Trump is seeking to exert in his second term. There are clearly still some ideological fiscal conservatives within the House GOP caucus that oppose the increase in the debt ceiling.
How will those Republicans show up in a vote on the giant MAGA bill Trump could try to force through Congress? How will the remaining deficit hawks handle a vote to raise the debt ceiling, which will almost certainly have to happen in order to pay for Trump’s tax cuts?
Another important thing to note about the shutdown fight was Elon Musk’s overreach. Some Republicans vented anger at Musk’s effort to insert himself into the government funding negotiations, privately and publicly expressing frustration. Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) said on CNN, “…Quite frankly, last time I checked, Elon Musk doesn’t have a vote in Congress.”
Other House Republicans anonymously fumed to Fox News on Thursday. One GOP lawmaker said: “Musk and Vivek should not have jumped in at the 11th hour and should have handled it directly with the speaker. Folks on the same side shouldn’t act like these two. They’re more about the clicks and bright lights than getting the job done. I’ll have nothing to do with them after watching them publicly trash the speaker.”
Another told Fox News that Ramaswamy was lying about the bill: “He didn't read the entire [continuing resolution] and the vast majority of what he was talking about is misinformation.”
Divisions. Deficit hawks. Elon Musk interfering in the legislation process. These will be key dynamics to watch over the next four years.
Will There Be New Senate Mavericks?
Another interesting thing to watch will be the Senate. There was an early defiance of Trump last year that deserves a bit more attention.
Senator John Thune (R-SD), Senator Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) longtime deputy, defeated MAGA-favorite Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) for Senate GOP Leader. Thune has questioned whether it’s realistic to deport all undocumented immigrants.
Now, as Senate Majority Leader, Thune will have a massive influence over Trump’s legislative agenda.
As I noted earlier, Trump can only afford to lose 3 Senate votes on these budget reconciliation bills. With Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) having left the Senate, one of the key critics of Trump is gone. But Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) have been known to make votes in an effort to showcase their independence. McConnell will also be an interesting player to watch. Will he defy Trump if Trump pushes for things he believes aren’t in the GOP’s best interest?
There’s a new Republican that I think is worth watching as well.
Republican Senator John Curtis (R-UT) just took over Romney’s seat, and in a post-election interview, he made some interesting comments about checks on the executive branch. In an interview on ABC, Curtis responded to Trump supporters who want him to “get in line”:
"It's my constitutional responsibility. These people are the same people who would have said earlier, 'You need to take power back from the executive branch.' That's what I'm doing."
It’s unclear whether there will ever be another Republican maverick like Senator John McCain (R-AZ), whose epic final act in Congress was defeating Trump’s effort to repeal Obamacare.
But there is definitely an opportunity for someone who wants to seize that role. While Trump is certainly seeking authoritarian power, he is a lame duck president who can’t hold office after 2028. Republicans should keep this in mind and begin to make moves that prepare for a post-Trump America.
Why Does This Matter?
Donald Trump basically has two years to try and force his legislative agenda through before the midterms. If even a handful of Republicans in Congress decide it’s in their best interest to block parts of Trump’s agenda, it won’t get done.
Obviously, there’s a lot of damage Trump can and will do at the executive level, but a lot of his agenda requires congressional funding.
Last year, I wrote about how Trump’s coalition of self-interested grifters was bound to experience infighting the moment their interests diverged. We’re already seeing glimpses of that before Trump is even sworn into office.
Infighting, incompetence, and impulsive egomania could limit how effective Trump is in his second term. There are a lot of fractures and weaknesses that Democrats can exploit. We’ll see if they take advantage of Trump’s vulnerabilities.
Thanks for the update, Ahmed. I’ll be watching the hearings on the cabinet picks. It’s definitely going to be interesting.