How Biden Can Target Trump’s Weaknesses And Try To Win Over Haley Voters
How Biden Can Target Trump’s Weaknesses And Try To Win Over Haley Voters
The GOP primary revealed the Trump weaknesses that Biden can exploit. Biden is already using that data to try and win over Nikki Haley's voters while Trump insults them.
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Donald Trump is now on an uncontested path to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The twice-impeached former President—who faces 91 criminal charges, was found liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll, and was found liable for fraud—once again solidified his place as the leader of the Republican Party.
Trump is on course for a rematch with the President who beat him in 2020 in an election Trump corruptly sought to overturn. Trump may have cleared the Republican field, but he didn’t come out of this primary unscathed.
Nikki Haley’s electoral performances revealed glaring weaknesses for Trump that President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party could exploit. The manner in which Haley exited the race also expanded on this opportunity.
On Wednesday morning, Nikki Haley suspended her campaign and opted not to endorse Trump. Instead, she said Trump has to earn the votes of Republicans who didn’t support him.
The GOP primary is over. But the battle for Haley voters is just beginning.
After Haley’s announcement, the Biden-Harris campaign wasted no time and immediately sent out a statement praising Nikki Haley and directly appealing to her voters:
“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign. I know there is a lot we won’t agree on. But on the fundamental issues of preserving American democracy, on standing up for the rule of law, on treating each other with decency and dignity and respect, on preserving NATO and standing up to America’s adversaries, I hope and believe we can find common ground.
We all know this is no ordinary election. And the stakes for America couldn't be higher. I know that Democrats and Republicans and Independents disagree on many issues and hold strong convictions. That's a good thing. That's what America stands for. I also know this: what unites Democrats and Republicans and Independents is a love for America."
Donald Trump, on the other hand, sent out an insulting Truth Social post during her campaign exit speech, starting with, “Nikki Haley got TROUNCED last night…” After going on to claim that her donors were “Radical Left Democrats,” Trump ended the post by saying that he “would further like to invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation.” Not a very warm invite, to say the least.
Notably, Olivia Perez-Cubas, the spokesperson for Nikki Haley’s campaign, quote-posted both Trump and Biden’s statements, simply writing: “A tale of two statements…”
Joe Biden’s Twitter/X account doubled down, sending out a post with a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social post from January where he called Haley “Birdbrain.” Biden’s screenshot highlighted this segment of Trump’s Post:
Anybody that makes a “Contribution” to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them…
Biden’s post simply read, “You don’t have to agree with me on everything to know MAGA extremism is a threat to this country. We need everyone on board—join our campaign: [Campaign Donation Link].”
There’s a reason the Biden-Harris campaign is adamant about targeting these voters. Haley’s voters reflect an important segment of Biden’s 2020 coalition that he’ll need to turn out again in 2024. The primary results prove these voters are among Haley’s base.
In almost every competitive primary this year where both Donald Trump and his rivals have been on the ballot, Trump lost between 20-50% of the vote. Exit polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia all found that 30% of Republican primary voters say he’d be unfit for President if he’s convicted, and over 50% don’t identify with the MAGA movement.
In New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, between 87-96% of Haley voters said they’d be “dissatisfied” if Trump wins the nomination. In a more stunning finding, CNN found that 81% of Haley voters in North Carolina on Super Tuesday said they would not vote for Trump in November. An NBC News/Des Moines Register poll echoed this finding, showing that 43% of Haley voters said they would back Biden in the general election.
Trump’s weakness with independents and moderates is glaring, the toxicity of the MAGA movement is apparent, and Trump’s criminality is a general election vulnerability.
I’ve written multiple articles analyzing how the primaries exposed Donald Trump’s weaknesses. Super Tuesday was no different. In this piece, I want to get more practical about what President Biden and Democrats can do to take advantage of those weaknesses.
Let’s dive into the primary election results, what they say about Trump’s weaknesses, and how Biden can exploit them.
What The Data Says About The Primary Voters Trump Lost, And How Biden Can Win Them Over
President Biden’s winning coalition in 2020 consisted of a wide tent. Progressives, moderate Democrats, moderate Republicans, and Independents united to take down Donald Trump.
The moderate Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents showing up to oppose Trump in these primary races are primed for Democratic messaging.
The following analysis is based on data from CNN’s exit polls with at least 1,600 respondents.
Trump’s Weakness With Moderates and Independents
In Virginia, 32% of Republican Primary voters, including 95% of Haley voters, said they’d be dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination. In North Carolina, 20% of Republican Primary voters said the same, including 87% of Haley voters. In South Carolina, 31% of Republican primary voters, including 96% of Haley voters, said echoed that same sentiment. In New Hampshire, we saw similar results, with 38% of Republican primary voters and 94% of Haley voters saying they’d be dissatisfied with a Trump nomination.
This outright dissatisfaction among Haley voters with Trump is strong and consistent. Haley’s voter base seems to consist of Never Trump Republicans, moderate Republicans, and Independents. The data bears that out.
While Trump won 74% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters, Haley still managed to get 25%. With Independents, who were 44% of New Hampshire primary voters, the results were flipped. Haley won 58% of Independents, and Trump won only 39%. In South Carolina, Nikki Haley won 62% of Independents and 30% of Republicans.
Trump had this same struggle with Independent voters in 2020, helping to swing the election toward Biden.
If Biden targets these voters with the right messaging, he may be able to win them over. Speaking to issues these swing voters care about will be key. Other exit polls give us insight into the kind of campaign messaging that could work.
Run On Abortion Rights
We saw consistent opposition to the most severe abortion restrictions across even the most conservative of Republican primary states.
54% of Virginia, 41% of North Carolina, 44% of South Carolina, and 67% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters said they oppose banning most or all abortions.
The Biden-Harris campaign, which is running on a promise to restore Roe v. Wade protections, has an easy advantage on this issue. Biden and Democrats need to repeatedly tie Trump’s appointment of right-wing justices to the end of Roe. The campaign has already started doing this on social media.
Highlighting Trump’s plans to restrict abortion would also be a smart messaging tactic for Biden. Also, pointing to Alabama’s IVF ruling as an example of what could come to other states is a good tactic we’re already seeing.
Spotlight MAGA Extremism
MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) is Trump’s campaign slogan and the core of his appeal. President Biden’s efforts to accurately depict the MAGA movement as extreme appear to have made Republican Primary voters less willing to publicly identify with it.
57% of Virginia Republican primary voters, 52% of North Carolina Republican primary voters, 54% of South Carolina Republican primary voters, 63% of New Hampshire primary voters, and 50% of Iowa Cacugoers aid they don’t identify as part of the MAGA movement. About half of Iowa Republican caucusgoers, which is a very conservative and evangelical electorate, also said they don’t identify with the movement.
The Biden-Harris campaign should continue to highlight the extremism within the MAGA movement. This is an all-encompassing attack line that can target the chaos in Speaker Mike Johnson’s House of Representatives, explain the “Christian Nationalism” driving Project 2025, spotlight Trump’s authoritarianism, and highlight broader anti-democracy sentiments in the modern GOP.
Highlight Trump’s Corruption & Threats To Democracy
There was a pair of findings that were so consistent they really caught my eye.
37% of Virginia GOP primary voters, 30% of North Carolina GOP primary voters, 36% of South Carolina GOP primary voters, 42% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, and 31% of Iowa GOP caucus voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as President if he’s convicted of a crime.
Interestingly, those views on a Trump conviction almost precisely correlate with Republican primary voter views on whether Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.
41% of Virginia GOP primary voters, 31% of North Carolina GOP primary voters, 36% of South Carolina GOP primary voters, 46% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, and 29% of Iowa GOP caucus voters said Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.
The fact that between 30-42% of Republican primary voters believe Trump is unfit for office if convicted and 29-46% believe Biden won legitimately indicates that the 2020 election subversion trial, in particular, could deeply damage Donald Trump’s general election chances. Whether or not that trial concludes before the election is still up in the air, but the facts of Trump’s conduct can still be spread by Democrats.
President Biden has said he won’t talk about Trump’s trials specifically, but he can certainly talk about January 6 and the threat Trump poses to democacy. Biden did this effectively in his opening speech of the 2024 campaign earlier this year.
Democratic surrogates, like California Governor Gavin Newsom, can go harder on the specifics of Trump’s cases and highlight his criminality. The numbers make it clear this will be an effective messaging tactic.
Flipping The Script On Immigration
In these primary election exit polls and national polls, immigration remains a top issue for Americans.
After Republicans sabotaged the bipartisan border bill they negotiated last month, Democrat Tom Suozzi flipped the script on his Republican opponent, Mazi Pilip, in the NY-03 race last month. Suozzi amplified this misstep, highlighting the fact Democrats want to solve this issue while Republicans opted for continued dysfunction. Suozzi won the seat. I was on the ground helping turn out the vote and saw the success of the campaign firsthand.
This strategy presents an opportunity for the Biden-Harris campaign to do the same on the issue Trump and Republicans poll the highest on.
President Biden already started doing this, making this claim in remarks during the border bill votes:
“Every day between now and November, the American people are going to know that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends.”
How Can Biden’s Message Break Through?
I know what you’re thinking: Even if Biden has the right messaging, how can we ensure people actually see and hear it? With our fragmented media landscape, there aren’t just a few media ecosystems with varying partisan tilts. In the age of social media algorithms, every single American has their own individualized media reality. Breaking through is harder than ever.
Well, the Biden-Harris Campaign, surrogates in the Democratic Party, and pro-democracy media will have to fire on all cylinders.
This means spreading the message on every social media platform and taking every opportunity to drive headlines and narratives. The Biden-Harris campaign’s launch of their TikTok account is a good step, and Biden’s recent Late Night appearance is a smart step. Also, traditional platforms like the State of the Union this week provide a guaranteed large audience for President Biden to push these messages.
Having well-funded allies will also help. A pro-Nikki Haley Super PAC has already rebranded as “Haley Voters For Biden,” and says they will target voters in swing states. Other “Never Trump” groups like the Lincoln Project will also be helpful in this fight.
In spite of the false narratives, the Biden Administration has had an extraordinarily productive first term. They have a positive story to tell about what has been done and what their plans are for 2024 - they just have to get Americans to hear it. They can balance this positive messaging while painting contrasts with Donald Trump’s dangerous agenda.
The threat of a second Trump term cannot be overstated. It’ll take all of us to prevent that from happening. Let’s keep up the crucial work!
