It’s Not Just Texas: Trump Is Pursuing A Nationwide GOP Gerrymandering Push
With midterms looming and his popularity sinking, Trump is demanding GOP states eliminate multiple Democratic seats in a stunning power grab. But Democrats are fighting back with notable force.
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President Trump has been waging a nationwide pressure campaign to push Republican-led states to influence the outcome of the 2026 midterms in his favor. In no uncertain terms, Trump and members of his administration have demanded that Republican states redraw their congressional maps to eliminate as many Democratic-held districts as possible.
It’s a power grab, plain and simple.
This isn’t the traditional redistricting that is usually tied to the Census that takes place every 10 years. Under pressure from Trump, Republicans across the country are seeking to make these changes now, ahead of a midterm election Republicans look poised to lose.
This is outright gerrymandering, the process of carving out districts that are unfairly favorable to a particular political party. It’s helped cultivate the toxic environment of polarization within our politics, leading to increasingly partisan districts where lawmakers have to appease the extremes of their party. It’s something Republicans have been particularly guilty of.
It’s important to note that this effort from President Trump and his allies is coming from a place of profound political weakness. A political party that believes it can win on the merit of its ideas and policies doesn’t need to rewrite the parameters of democracy in order to win. But things aren’t looking good for Trump and the Republican Party.
President Trump’s approval rating is near his all-time low of 34% on Gallup, hitting a second-term low of 37%. A new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll finds Trump’s approval at 38% with 70% of Americans saying Trump hasn’t handled the Epstein files well and 63% believing he’s hiding something. Trump also just oversaw the worst three months of job growth since the pandemic, and before that, since the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2010.
President Trump is unpopular, and that will impact Republicans down ballot, like it did in 2018. Trump knows if Democrats take back the House in 2026, which generic ballot polling indicates they likely will, his agenda will be totally stalled, he could face numerous House investigations, and possibly a third impeachment. So now, Trump is desperately trying to prevent that outcome with every undemocratic tool in his authoritarian playbook.
A source told Politico that Trump’s team is putting “maximum pressure on everywhere where redistricting is an option and it could provide a good return on investment.”
The Republican states that are either already attempting or considering appeasing Trump’s demands include Texas, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska, Missouri, and Florida. Ohio was already set to redraw its maps ahead of the midterms after a legal battle, so it could be among the next most likely to move. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Indiana on Thursday to meet with and pressure Republican state lawmakers to join this nationwide gerrymandering effort.
But of all the states moving on this, the effort getting the most attention and which could have the widest impact on the 2026 congressional map is the situation in Texas.
It started in July with President Trump urging Texas Governor Greg Abbott to redraw Texas congressional districts, pushing for up to 5 Democratic districts to be virtually eliminated and replaced with Republican-friendly districts. Abbott obliged, calling for a special session for the state legislature to vote on the new map. This move, if successful, will especially suppress the votes of Black and Hispanic voters.
This demand for 5 seats would have a huge impact, given the GOP House’s slim majority.
In an interview on CNBC, President Trump gave the game away, providing no real justification for the redraw other than the desire for more power: "We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas… And we are entitled to five more seats.”
Texas Democrats did something unexpected and threw a wrench in Trump’s plans. On Sunday, over 50 Democratic Texas state lawmakers fled the state, denying Texas Republicans a quorum to approve their new gerrymandered map. As long as 51 Texas Democrats remain out of the state, they deny Texas Republicans the quorum necessary to move forward with a vote. So far, their absence has blocked multiple votes on the new map.
Illinois Democratic Governor JB Pritzker, the billionaire Hyatt Hotel heir, has welcomed the bulk of the Texas Democrats.
Texas Republicans have responded ferociously. The Texas legislature and Governor Abbott approved and ordered civil arrest warrants for these Texas Democrats. But the Texas Department of Public Safety, which Abbott has ordered to execute on the warrants, has no jurisdiction outside the state. Governor Abbott and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton have gone even further, asking the Texas Supreme Court to remove the Texas Democratic leader from office.
Things escalated on Thursday, with Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) saying that FBI Director Kash Patel has agreed to help locate the Texas Democrats who fled the state.
Before Senator Cornyn made this announcement, Governor Pritzker said that there is no federal law being violated by these Texas Democrats, and if federal agents came, he would protect them:
"They’re grandstanding… There's literally no federal law applicable to this situation. None… They can say that they're sending FBI. FBI agents might show up to, I don't know, put a show on. But the fact is, our local law enforcement protects everybody in the state in Illinois…
And so, whether it's federal agents coming to Illinois or state rangers from Texas, if you haven't broken federal law, you're basically unwelcome, and there's no way that our state legislators here, Texas state legislators, can be arrested."
Deputizing the FBI to get involved in a state matter to potentially apprehend state lawmakers to push through a gerrymandering effort on the part of President Trump is dangerously authoritarian. It’s unclear whether the FBI would try to arrest these Texas Democrats, but a standoff could be brewing here.
Even if Democrats wait out the special session this month, Governor Abbott could always call for a new one. Texas Democrats would have to wait this out until December to prevent Texas from implementing the map. But if this map does get implemented, there’s another remedy that could balance the seat losses: retaliatory redistricting.
While Texas Democrats seek refuge in blue states, Democratic governors have responded in the broader gerrymandering fight with force.
California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) was among the first to forcefully declare that if Texas Republicans approved this new gerrymandered map, wiping away 5 Democratic seats, California would also pursue redistricting to offset those losses. Newsom said in a statement explaining the move:
“Donald Trump called up Governor Abbott for one simple reason: to rig the 2026 elections. California’s moral high ground means nothing if we’re powerless because of it. This moment requires us to be prepared to fight fire with fire. Whether that’s a special election, a ballot initiative, a bill, a fight in court. If they proceed in Texas, we will be ready.”
In the case of California, the way this would work would be a ballot measure where voters would approve or disapprove of new maps in the fall, allowing the state to set aside its independent redistricting committee temporarily.
Newsom’s declaration has started an avalanche of Democratic states considering retaliation if Texas moves forward with its new map. The states considering this include Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York.
In New Jersey and New York, they face stiffer obstacles because a change to their constitutions would be necessary to pursue these new maps. But nonetheless, they’re jumping in the rhetorical fray.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) had strong words this week, declaring at a press conference:
"If Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage, then they're leaving us no choice; we must do the same. There's a phrase, 'you have to fight fire with fire.' That is a true statement of how we're feeling right now. And as I've said, another overused but applicable phrase, 'all is fair in love and war'— that's why I'm exploring with our leaders every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible."
It’s important to note that Democrats threatening to redistrict are taking defensive action. This should not be framed within a “both sides” narrative of partisan bickering. They did not start this fight. They’re simply dealing with the reality Republicans have thrust America into.
Rather than operate in the world as they wish it to be, Democrats are dealing with the world as it is. And it appears the threats of retaliation are already having an impact.
Democratic threats could become a deterrent, with blue state Republicans raising concerns. The Republicans who helped Trump win the House with election wins in California and New York are openly expressing their opposition to Trump’s gerrymandering effort, with the recognition that Democrats could retaliate and literally wipe their districts off the map.
“He was not given the full picture of the ultimate consequences,” Rep. Kevin Kiley, a California Republican whose district would be at risk if Newsom retaliates, told Politico about Trump’s effort.
Like many of the authoritarian overreaches Trump has pursued during both his terms in office, this move could also backfire, opening an era of partisan gerrymandering that could unleash a version of the Democratic Party that Republicans might regret awakening.
I am all for fair representation, but if the republicans want to play like this it’s time for Dem led states to get rid of their redistricting commissions and play their game.
Thank you, Ahmed, for highlighting this important issue. I cannot believe how quickly we are being dragged down by the orange clown. Every day there’s another outrage. Enough already!