Yes, Trump Is An Authoritarian. But He's Weaker Than He Seems And His Moves Are Backfiring.
Trump is abusing his power. But his phony emergencies, gerrymanders, and purges are coming from fear. It fits a pattern of desperate overreach, sparking mounting backlash against Trump and the GOP.
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I’ve been thinking a lot about how I should cover this historic moment we find ourselves in.
Do I write yet another piece dissecting the latest abuse of power from President Trump? What is the best way to inform the public about the Trump Administration’s authoritarian consolidation of power that doesn’t frame these frauds as more powerful than they are? How can I offer clear-headed analysis of what’s actually happening without veering into fear-mongering that leaves you, the reader, despondent?
After all, generating a sense of helplessness among Americans is part of the Trump Administration’s strategy. They want us to feel like they have more power than they actually do. They want to project a false sense of strength to mask Trump and the Republican Party’s deepening political weakness. Adding to that sense of helplessness is not something I want to do.
So how should we - journalists and media figures in the pro-democracy movement - talk about Trump’s escalating attempt to twist the federal government into an autocratic tool of the far-right?
Trump’s actions are so overtly authoritarian, in every objective sense of the word, that simply relaying what he’s doing in a straightforward manner can make you sound alarmist. But what Trump is doing is cause for alarm. His actions should be intensely reported on, scrutinized, and explained to the public without pulling any punches.
At the same time, I think what people deserve is a stable, clear-headed view of the machinery of the Trump Administration’s tactics that doesn’t seek to anger you for clicks. You deserve an accurate portrayal of Trump’s efforts at consolidating power that also describes the underlying weakness all of this stems from.
Let’s dive into Trump’s second term, from his actions to the pushback. Then, I’ll close the piece out with a section on why Trump’s weakness should be emphasized and how I plan to ramp up my coverage of this moment. I promise you’ll leave this piece feeling more hopeful than when you clicked into it.
Trump’s Authoritarian Presidency Is Sparking Backlash And Weakening His Political Movement
Before we talk about how Trump’s actions are backfiring on him and the Republican Party, creating escalating political vulnerabilities, let’s level set on where we’re at right now.
President Trump has spent his second term implementing Project 2025 - 47% of which has been either enacted or pursued. Trump has purged the federal government of hundreds of thousands of nonpartisan civil servants as he installs loyalists. Trump has fired officials who dare to tell the truth - like the BLS Chief. Trump has unilaterally gutted federal agencies, corrupted public health agencies, and eroded pockets of independence throughout the executive branch.
President Trump has exploited unlawful emergency declarations seeking false justifications for expanding his power. Trump has deployed and threatened to deploy the military to Democratic-run cities under the guise of false crime emergencies, deported innocent immigrants under a false immigration emergency, and deployed globally destabilizing tariffs under a false economic emergency.
Masked ICE agents in unmarked cars patrol the streets in cities across America, racially profiling and detaining people. There have been countless incidents of legal immigrants and citizens being wrongfully detained, and, in some cases, legal immigrants being wrongfully deported. Families are being ripped apart, due process is being violated, and law-abiding immigrants who are simply trying to work are being sent to countries they, in some cases, have no connection to.
Trump has launched phony investigations into his political targets, pressured media organizations to bend their coverage to his whim, and sought to reshape cultural institutions and universities into the MAGA image. The rights of the marginalized have been assaulted under the guise of a crackdown on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI).
The Republican-controlled Congress has rendered the legislative branch into a subservient branch of government that refuses to uphold its duty to check the power of the executive. The lower courts in the judicial branch are doing an admirable job of striking down Trump’s unlawful moves, but the Supreme Court has been far too deferential to the administration. All of this is happening while the Republican Party seeks to cement its power through a mid-decade gerrymandering push.
The Trump Administration and the Republican Party have enacted a law that amounts to the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in American history. Meanwhile, as President Trump raises prices on Americans, he’s treating the presidency like another asset on the Trump family balance sheet, blatantly enriching himself through his crypto schemes and real estate deals.
This level of self-dealing, corruption, and overt authoritarianism is unprecedented in American history.
This is a scary moment. Fear is a normal human response to this moment. But at the same time, all is not lost, and all of these actions have generated profound backlash that is eroding Trump’s political movement.
Trump is facing a sharp decline in support across key demographics that he made gains with in 2024. From Black voters, to young voters, to Hispanic voters - his approvals are eroding. His overall approval rating is at 40% in the latest Gallup poll, up from a second-term low in July of 37% - a low that was just 3 points away from his all-time low of 34% just days after January 6, 2021. Other recent polls corroborate Trump’s approval at a similar low of around 40%.
Data-driven independent journalist, G. Elliott Morris, maintains a chart of polling averages that showcase how underwater Trump is on all key issues:
As you likely know if you’re a longtime subscriber, I’ve been saying this since the early days after Trump won in 2024: One thing that has held true throughout this Trump era is that you can always count on Trump and his allies to self-sabotage and overreach. One of my first articles, the week after Trump’s inauguration, was headlined “Trump’s Incompetent Overreach Is Already Backfiring.” That’s exactly what we’re seeing.
For months, it’s been clear that Trump’s tariffs have backfired. Trump just oversaw the weakest 3-month period of job growth since the COVID pandemic, and before that, the Great Recession. Then, we got the latest jobs report that was even worse than expected. June was revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first negative month of job growth since December 2020—a month where 77k+ Americans died of COVID. Trump’s tariffs are forcing the economy into a totally unnecessary slowdown.
Trump’s approach to the economy is creating his biggest political weaknesses, but his cruel approach to immigration has also driven his net approval on that issue, which he was previously strong on.
As I outlined in a recent appearance on MSNBC, the fact that Trump is polling underwater on these major issues and the resilience of the Epstein scandal is causing him to act desperately ahead of a midterm election he’s terrified of losing. Trump is fabricating crime crises to grab power, shift the debate, and put Dems on the defensive on crime.
It’s from this place of weakness that Trump operates. He’s moving with fear. Morning Joe Co-Host and Atlantic Staff Writer Jonathan Lemire confirmed what we’ve all been saying for months, directly from White House sources. The article is headlined, “Fear of Losing the Midterms Is Driving Trump’s Decisions,” and reads:
“The specter of investigations and impeachment has fueled many of the president’s most dramatic actions in recent weeks, three senior White House officials and two close outside allies told me. Trump’s unprecedented (and, Democrats say, illegal) mid-decade redistricting push, the deployment of the National Guard to Washington, his unceasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—all can be seen as part of a sweeping, frantic attempt to swing next year’s midterm elections.”
I made this exact point last month in my weekly Substack Live with Don Lemon.
This weakness should be pointed out emphatically. New Republic Staff Writer Greg Sargent also makes this point eloquently in his article headlined: “Trump Is a Weak and Failing President, and It’s Time to Say So.”
Rachel Maddow also made this argument in a Monday night segment this week, proclaiming that, “This is a weak and unpopular president who bizarrely and implausibly is trying to extricate himself from the Epstein scandal with all the skill of a sea cucumber trying to play the piano.”
In a nutshell, Trump’s gerrymandering push, his troop deployment threats, everything, it’s all connected and tied to his deepening weakness and fear of 2026.
Why Trump’s Weakness Should Be Emphasized
My goal is to help you understand this moment, making the “why” of Trump’s actions as central to the story as the how and the what. I think it’s key to point out the logic, strategy, and areas of vulnerability in Trump’s tactics so that those in his opposition can better combat him.
So I promise to write about this moment with a realistic, actionable assessment of the feasibility of his moves. I will not doom and gloom you for clicks or subscriptions. Far too many people do that.
I also need to do more. While I’ve been making a lot of cable news appearances this past year (over 20 now), I haven’t been generating as much content on my own platforms as I did in Trump’s first term. I’ve been working on getting a civic engagement tech project for a voting rights nonprofit to launch for a year and a half now (I’ll have more to say on that soon). So I’ve been busy building that app. Now that it’s far along, I’m going to be dedicating a bit more time to my journalism.
I’m going to be creating a lot more content. You’ll see more Substack Lives from me, more articles, and more short-form video content that I’ll distribute on my TikTok and YouTube accounts to reach more people.
I want to give you the coverage you deserve, and tell the full story of this Trump term, not just highlighting a one-sided assault on our democracy, but also portraying the resilient pushback to it.
I documented every day of Trump’s first term and organized it in an index where you can see what happened every single day. So, unfortunately, this is not my first time covering a Trump Administration.
As I’ve said before, documenting Trump’s first term felt like I was chronicling the fall of Rome, but that term ended up being the story of democracy persevering under threat.
The Trump era has been about more than a power-hungry con man who, with the help of his sycophants, has exploited America’s pre-existing flaws and sought to end our democracy as we know it. It’s also been about how the people have responded to that depravity.
With each cruel and corrupt action taken by Trump, there has always been an equal and opposite reaction taken by his patriotic opposition. Trump's first term sparked a political reawakening we hadn’t seen since the 1960s. By the end of his term, it became clear to me that his term was also the story of the people who fought back and, in the end, won.
The end of this second term has yet to be written, but we’re already seeing similar dynamics play out. On June 14, over 5 million participants across all 50 states gathered for the “No Kings” protests in what was the largest single-day mass demonstration in the U.S. since the 2017 Women’s March. Democrats are winning or overperforming in countless elections held this year. Lower courts are striking down Trump’s unlawful actions left and right.
Americans are pushing back. And yes, elections do still matter. If voters turn out in the ferocity I think they will, no amount of gerrymandering will be able to hold back the 2026 result that will turn Trump into a lame duck president on his way out of office.
I’ll end this piece with a quote from one of my favorite shows of all time and perhaps the most important piece of anti-fascist art of this generation, Andor. It’s a Star Wars show that tells the story of the birth of the rebellion in the face of the increasingly oppressive Empire.
Nemik, a revolutionary thinker character in the show, writes in his manifesto that “the need for control is so desperate because it is so unnatural. Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear.”
Donald Trump’s authority is brittle, and his attempts to oppress are a mask for his fear. If Trump is so afraid of your vote, he’s certainly not as all-powerful as he claims to be, and you are much more powerful than you realize.
Ahmed, you are so clear-eyed and sharp. I appreciate your ability to assemble the list of horrible/stupid unforced errors the president has made. It is great to see them all laid out here.
I am also very glad to hear you are working on voting rights and are getting ready to bring all of us more content on substack.
I have a question for you. A request. I agree completely with all you have written here but even I feel helpless in the face of a so-called supreme court that rubber stamps the white supremacist idiocy, especially with this week’s hypocritical condoning of racial profiling — after disallowing consideration of race to promote diversity and after having admitted Korematsu was a horrible decision. How do we stay hopeful when they will simply roll over any forward movement? I support expanding the court but do not yet know how we get from their lawlessness to reform. Can you address this in your future writings?
Thank you for responding. I will check out the other post. I sure hope you are right.
For me, this was a huge one—the 4th amendment. It felt like a similar overreach, sending people to El Salvador without due process.
Perhaps these are rulings that reflect the court’s racism and they will step up when it comes to major election interference, not the usual destruction of votes at the margins, which is enough to turn elections.
It has taken me a long time to recognize how the court is actually motivated. It is very painful, so I appreciate your insight.