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Across The Pond is back! After a month and a half away, James and I returned with a huge amount of you watching live, and the chat feeling like a family reunion.
A lot has changed in that time. I’ve joined Common Power as Chief Media & Technology Officer. James has become UK director of an American space tech company in Edinburgh, and he’s finishing a book that comes out in May 2027. But our Substack publications are going nowhere. Our conversations have never stopped off camera, and we’re happy to bring this popular live back to you. You can expect us back on a biweekly schedule as we get accustomed to our new leadership roles, but we could up the frequency if you keep showing up like you did today!
The news didn’t wait for us. France was in flames, the unrest had spread across the continent, and Trump was handing Vladimir Putin one gift after another. What came out of the hour was one argument, made from both sides of the Atlantic. The right’s playbook is the same everywhere: strip public services, boost income inequality, and blame migrants for the fallout. James and I agree that these tactics are coming from one place: the right’s fear of losing power.
I appreciate those of you who tuned in live and contributed so much to the conversation. We had such a good time, and are so happy to be back! This is truly the best community on Substack.
If you’re just catching our conversation now, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments and smash that like button.
You can watch our full conversation above and read key takeaways below. And, as always, thank you for supporting independent media.
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Europe Is In Chaos, And It Started In The Classroom
France’s unrest began with students asking for decent schools. James explained why it spread, and I explained why it isn’t only a French story.
It started with kids. I pointed out what surprises most people who look into this. The protests began with high schoolers fed up with the conditions in their schools. Then it grew into a broader revolt over inequality.
France has the infrastructure for this. James explained that France has a deep culture of protest, backed by powerful unions. Parents and teachers have marched alongside the students and defended them from police brutality. He called it a healthy relationship with democracy.
A broken social contract. James framed the anger as a breach of the basic deal between people and their government. The French pay high taxes and expect good public services in return, starting with schools that work. When protests catch in cities beyond the capital, he said, that’s the real sign of trouble.
The violence has victims. James condemned the looting of independent shops. He described a shopkeeper of Pakistani descent who moved to Paris 30 years ago and was beaten while people stole from his store. That violence has nothing to do with what the students set out to do.
A K-shaped world. I argued the K-shaped economy isn’t only an American problem. Global inflation and fuel costs from Trump’s Iran war are squeezing people everywhere. That’s why we’re seeing protests over housing in Spain, education costs in Belgium, living costs in Italy and Portugal, and unrest even in Albania.
One Playbook, Two Continents
The protests began over schools and the cost of living. The right on both sides of the Atlantic looked at them and saw immigrants.
Le Pen talks out of both sides of her mouth. I noted that Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right movement, called the grievances legitimate, then blamed “decades of immigration” for the looting. Trump also exploited the moment to falsely blame migrants, claiming France was being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground. He’s selling it as a warning about what Democrats will bring if they win the midterms. He’s lying.
Copy-and-paste propaganda. James called it copy-and-paste propaganda. Trump was only hours into seeing violent footage before he tied it to migrants, even though some of the victims are migrants themselves. James’s diagnosis: right-wing austerity and a pro-billionaire approach that strips public services are coming home to roost.
Reform UK runs the same play. James walked through an ITV undercover documentary inside Nigel Farage’s party. It caught members talking about dragging immigrants from their homes, and one claimed King Charles is secretly a Muslim. If Reform can’t turn you against immigrants, James said, they’ll turn you against your neighbors on benefits, with the same old “welfare queens” textbook.
The heart of the story. I told James that point was the heart of the story. Whenever people are hurting, the right’s reflex is to blame whoever has the least power. Reagan did it with the welfare queen myth, and today the target is migrants on both sides of the Atlantic.
Scapegoating with the border closed. Trump and Vance blame immigrants for the cost of living even with the border effectively closed. Trump falsely warns that France is America’s future if Democrats win the House. The people causing the pain point at brown people with less power. It’s systemic, and it’s coordinated.
Who are the parasites? James was heartbroken by an Ohio voter who told Channel 4 he couldn’t afford diesel but didn’t want billionaires taxed. His answer for progressives is to ask who the real parasites are. Is it people on small benefits, or the billionaires draining public money through government contracts?
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They’re Scared, And It Shows
The midterms dominated much of the hour. James sees fear on the right from across the Atlantic, and I’m hearing it from voters.
The smell of fear. James said there’s been a smell of fear on the right since our last episode, including Elon Musk lashing out at Zelenskyy in an interview. His theory is that our side finally has talent coming through: Abdul El-Sayed, Zohran Mamdani, James Talarico, and Andy Burnham, who changed everything in Britain by addressing people’s underlying concerns.
Overreach is backfiring. I told James this has been the thesis of my journalism for the last year and a half. My first headline, ten days after the inauguration, said Trump’s overreach was already backfiring. When he has unchecked power, he doesn’t restrain himself, and nearly every move since has blown up in his face.
Bracing for accountability. I argued Trump is snapping at reporters because he knows the last two years of his presidency will be buried in investigations. His businesses will be subpoenaed and his corruption exposed. I pointed to Karoline Leavitt leaving the press secretary job as a sign that people around him see it coming.
What I’m hearing from the doors. Common Power’s volunteers are knocking 10,000 doors every four days, and by election week it will be 10,000 a day. Republicans at those doors say they’re staying home, voting Democrat for the first time, or don’t know what to do. That’s the opposite of what I heard knocking doors in 2024. These Republicans are cooked.
Ready for interference. I shared that in a Common Power briefing for our volunteers, Norm Eisen said there are lawsuits ready for every threat to the election, real or fake. James added that even the BBC is reporting from Kansas, because the world is watching these races.
The Reckoning After November
James asked the question British coverage is already asking: what happens the day after Trump loses? I said the Republican Party has to break before it can be rebuilt.
Will he accept it? James said British media is already focused on the moment Trump inevitably claims fraud after the midterms. He asked whether that moment could give some Republicans an off-ramp, and maybe even the start of an alternative Republican party.
The defections have started. I argued that the people who saw this coming jumped off the train a long time ago. Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Thomas Massie are positioning for a post-Trump future, but I’m not calling them good people. Republicans running for Senate are already distancing themselves from the Iran war.
A lame duck without clout. Once Trump loses, I said, he won’t have the reach to pull off a reversal, because people won’t play along this time. I expect Republicans to break with him more forcefully. The fight over the party’s future will be worse than after George W. Bush.
Break it down to build it back. I said Trump was the culmination of where the party was already headed. The Confederacy lived on in that party, and he took the mask off. It needs to be pushed out of power at the ballot box and sent into the wilderness until it finds its conscience.
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Power First, Purity Later
We both made the case for a broad coalition. The fights over the soul of the party can wait until the fascists are out of power.
Get the power first. I said this is the lesson many on the left have learned and some still need to. Fractures and purity tests on the left are what allow fascists to rise. We saw it with Hitler.
James’s pragmatism. James said he’s more pragmatic than he’s ever been. If a socially conservative Democrat he’d never agree with helps crush MAGA, he’ll celebrate it and save the purity debates for later. He feels the same about Talarico’s talk of God. It makes him uncomfortable as an atheist, but it’s the language of Texans, and it keeps the door open.
Burnham’s North Sea test. James explained that Burnham had just approved the Jackdaw gas field off Scotland, splitting the left. James supports it because Britain needs gas during the transition, and producing its own beats importing it from Saudi Arabia. With Farage nipping at Burnham’s ankles, he said the left needs pragmatism more than purity.
Hold your nose. James voted Liberal Democrat for the first time in his life to keep Reform out. His advice to anyone frustrated with centrist Democrats is to hold your nose and vote, then keep pushing once they’re in. I added that the work doesn’t stop on election night. Part of my job now is keeping people organized in the off years too.
Trump Is Paying Putin Back
We closed on Russia. From Washington to London, the verdict is the same. The Trump administration has chosen a side, and it isn’t Ukraine’s.
A pattern of gifts. I laid out the diesel deal, Trump unilaterally waiving Russian sanctions, Musk’s Starlink restrictions, and the pressure on Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries. Even the prisoner release came wrapped in wins for Putin. The administration has chosen a side, but the American people stand by Ukraine.
America looks allied with Russia. James said that from where he sits, America is currently allied with Russia, and that’s the message reaching NATO.
What the deal buys. James described a one-year-old girl killed in her pram by a drone strike on a Kharkiv market. Then he pointed out that the diesel deal buys only a few hours’ worth of fuel. The winner is Putin. I added that it does nothing long-term for diesel prices. It’s an alley-oop to his bro.
Payback for 2016. I said this is Trump paying back the people who helped put him in office in 2016. I reported on the Trump-Russia investigation during his first term and read the Mueller report page by page. Bill Barr’s memo shrouded it, but the evidence of coordination was there.
The receipts. Paul Manafort handed internal campaign polling data to a Russian-linked associate, and WikiLeaks worked directly to help Trump win. Now Russian oligarchs are paying for Don Jr.’s wedding party.
ROI for the Russians. James summed it up: this is ROI for the Russians. I agreed. Putin scratched his back, and Trump admires him. He wants what Putin has: a country that serves as a personal vessel for his enrichment, and power for life.
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Bottom Line
Europe is in chaos, the American president is siding with the Kremlin, and the global far right is running the same playbook: strip public services and blame migrants for the damage, all while shamelessly consolidating power. James and I still left this one hopeful. The people running that playbook are scared. The voters are noticing, and the doors are telling us what the polls are telling us: This isn’t Russia, and Trump is about to get a reality check on November 3.
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