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On Election Day, Common Power Executive Director Charles Douglas III joined me live from a banquet hall in Michigan, where we launched more than 100 volunteers today to knock on doors and work the polls. We did something we skipped on our last live: straight predictions, state by state. We didn’t allow any toss-ups. Every race got a yes or a no.
We agree on almost everything. Democrats flip North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, and hold Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan. Texas is the seat that gets Democrats to 52, which means a majority that doesn’t depend on John Fetterman. We split on two races. Charles thinks Adam Hamilton takes Kansas and Josh Turek falls short in Iowa. I have it the other way, with Rob Sand’s coattails carrying Turek over the line. Either way, we both land at six flips and 53 seats. That’s double Fetterman-proof.
Michigan is the race to watch. Charles says Haley Stevens’ last-minute endorsement of Mike Rogers isn’t moving anyone at the doors, and Common Power’s volunteers finished their canvassing in her old district the morning after she made it. If Abdul El-Sayed wins by five, six, or seven points, it shapes the media narrative and the 2028 primary conversation about what progressives can win. Maine is the one that worries us. We both have Troy Jackson winning by a hair, carried by a national environment that wouldn’t have saved him in a normal year.
In our calls, Nebraska, Montana, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Florida stay red. Charles made a point about Florida that I want to underline. If Angie Nixon falls short, her story is just beginning in organizing in Florida. Florida also reports early, so if she wins or is doing better than expected, that’s a sign the whole night is breaking our way.
Join our election night stream on Zoom or here on Substack tonight at 7 p.m. ET, and let’s see how high we can take these wins!
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