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Four days before the midterms, I went live with Charles Douglas, Common Power’s Executive Director, for a predictions show. Charles called in from Michigan, where Common Power is expecting close to 200 volunteers at this weekend’s peak. He’d just sent off that morning’s carpools, a mix of Silent Gen, Boomers, Gen X, millennials, Gen Z, and a few Gen Alpha brought along by their parents, and he headed out to knock doors as soon as we wrapped. It was a good reminder of where elections actually get won.
We ranked seven election scenarios live on a drag-and-drop board I built this morning. My number one was a Democratic wave, House and Senate. I’ll admit the numbers probably favor the House flipping while the Senate holds, but my gut says wave. After that, I went with a mixed night, then contested results, with Republicans holding both near the bottom. Charles surprised me by putting contested results first. His argument is that we’ll see a few days of chaos after Tuesday, with the DOJ already going after election officials and Trump loyalists willing to try anything, and then it melts away as other Republicans realize none of it will survive the courts. Then the wave. In his view, if the Senate holds, it’ll be because of shenanigans, not because of what voters actually want.
Our biggest disagreement was progressives versus moderates, and Charles changed my mind. His point is that progressive ideas have already won: candidates running as moderates are campaigning on taxing billionaires and expanding healthcare. Then we went through the Senate map. I think Democrats hold Michigan, Minnesota, and Georgia and flip Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Alaska, with Alaska probably the last race called. Maine is a harder climb than people think. Kansas and Iowa are the wild cards, and Charles thinks Kansas may be likelier than Maine because Republicans never saw it coming. South Carolina is suddenly a toss-up too.
We also looked past Tuesday. If Democrats take power, they need to come out swinging: subpoenas, corruption investigations, impeachment inquiries into Cabinet officials, and floor votes that force Republicans to defend Trump’s unpopular policies on the record. On the right, we both expect a civil war. Charles predicts old-guard Republicans will resurface, rebranded and borrowing Democratic ideas. My dark horse to watch is Marco Rubio, who is going to pitch himself as the bridge between MAGA and the old establishment.
One last thing. If Democrats win the House and fall a seat or two short in the Senate, don’t accept the spin that it was a weak night. In 2018, Republicans gained two Senate seats, and it was still remembered as a wave because Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House.
I appreciate those of you who tuned in live and contributed so much to the conversation. What a time to be alive. This is truly the best community on Substack. If you’re just catching it now, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments and smash that like button.
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