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I was back on MS NOW’s The Weekend Primetime on Sunday alongside brilliant hosts Ayman Mohyeldin, Antonia Hylton, Elise Jordan, Catherine Rampell, and co-panelist former Rep. Jamaal Bowman.
The segment started with the Louisiana primary fallout and Bill Cassidy’s loss, Trump’s effort to oust Rep. Thomas Massie, and what it all tells us about Trump’s grip on the Republican Party. It turned into something bigger. The Republican take has been that this proves Trump is stronger than ever. I came away with a different argument entirely.
Trump’s grip on Republican primaries is real. But his coalition is shrinking, and his primary picks have a track record of general election damage. And the party he has built around himself is a personality cult, not a governing majority. Lindsey Graham called it in 2016 and then spent the next decade proving his own point. I brought the receipts for all of it.
You can watch highlights from the segment above and read key takeaways below.
Lindsey Graham & The GOP’s Amoral Sycophancy
Lindsey Graham went on television after Cassidy’s loss and said that if you try to destroy Trump, you will lose, because this is the party of Trump. I had something to say about that.
2016 Lindsey Graham was right. He said if the GOP nominated Trump, it would destroy the party, and they would deserve it. He was right. What Trump has built in its place is a personality cult-driven atrocity designed specifically around his whims. The reason no one gives him honest advice anymore is that disagreement is now framed as destruction. Lindsey Graham helped build that dynamic and now benefits from enforcing it.
The receipts on Graham are extensive and specific. He called Trump a “xenophobic religious bigot.” A “jackass.” A “kook.” “Unfit for office.” He said Trump didn’t represent the Republican Party. Now he says Trump is the Republican Party. Graham is the personification of the GOP’s descent into amoral sycophancy. Graham, like the other GOP lawmakers who flipped to back Trump, didn’t betray their principles. They proved they never had any to begin with.
100% Of A Shrinking Pie
Trump keeps touting that he has 100% support among MAGA Republicans. That number is real. What he leaves out is the context that makes it far less impressive than it sounds.
That same NBC poll previously found that the number of Republicans who identify as MAGA is dropping. It fell seven points to 50% of Republicans. So, Trump has consolidated total control of a base that is actively contracting. Congratulations, Donald. You have 100% of a shrinking pie.
Other polling tells the same story. Trump is in the 30s with Americans overall and in the 20s with independents. The intensity of his support among Republicans is decreasing even as his grip on primary outcomes holds. Those two things can be true simultaneously, and they are. Primary dominance and general election viability are different measurements, and too many pundits are conflating them.
MAGA is now the establishment. That matters because the energy and the identity of a movement changes when it becomes the thing in power. The Massie race is the first early test of what comes next: America First versus MAGA, non-interventionists versus Trump loyalists. I said on the panel that we are watching the beginning of the 2028 primary play out right now. That fight is already underway.
The 2022 Warning Sign Republicans Are Ignoring
The argument that Trump’s primary influence represents strength ignores what happened the last time he did this. In 2022, Trump was hunkered down in Mar-a-Lago, effectively in post-January 6 exile, and he was still dominating Republican primaries. His endorsed candidates, many of them election deniers, won those primaries. Then November came.
Election deniers lost the races that mattered most. Governor races. Secretary of state races. Key election administration positions across battleground states. These were not close losses in unwinnable territory. These were competitive races that Trump’s extreme picks turned into Democratic wins. The losses had lasting structural consequences for Republican electoral infrastructure in those states.
Battleground states are now run by Democrats because of Trump’s 2022 primary picks. That is not a talking point. That is the direct result of Trump prioritizing personal loyalty tests over electability. Catherine Rampell said it on the panel, and it bears repeating: he doesn’t understand his own interests. He doesn’t.
The same dynamic is setting up for 2026. Trump is running the same playbook. His most extreme picks are winning primaries in an electorate that has fundamentally shifted since 2024. Seventy-seven percent of Americans blame his policies for rising prices in their communities, according to a recent CNN poll. A majority of Republicans say the same. The Massie race will be an early indicator of whether Republican voters are starting to price in what Trump’s endorsement actually costs them in November.
Bottom Line
Trump has 100% of a shrinking pie, a track record of general election damage, and a party too captured by sycophancy to tell him the truth. Lindsey Graham had it right in 2016. The party nominated Trump, it is being destroyed, and they deserve it.
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