Trump Is Already Overplaying His Hand - And It Could Backfire On The GOP
Americans voted under the false impression Trump would lower prices. Instead, they'll face Project 2025 extremism, incompetence, culture wars, cruel policies, and higher prices via tariffs.
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In my article on Trump’s Cabinet picks, I wrote that you can always count on Donald Trump and his allies to overreach with their extremism. Judging by how Trump and Republicans are behaving post-election, they’re doing exactly that. They’ve clearly mistaken their win as an endorsement of the entirety of their extreme agenda - and that could backfire on them big time.
Exit polls indicated that Americans voted with inflation and the economy as a top issue. If Trump moves forward with his promises, instead of lowering prices, Americans are going to get overt extremism, culture wars, incompetence, cruel policies, and higher prices via tariffs.
As polls have shown, Trump’s voters are less likely to pay attention to political news. The biggest political divide in America is between tuned-in and tuned-out voters. While those of us who are tuned in have been warning about the threat of a second Trump term and discussing how his economic plans would tank the economy, many Americans never saw these details.
Our fractured media environment, made even worse by coordinated right-wing disinformation, which played a large role in Trump’s win, has made it very difficult for average Americans to decipher what’s real and what’s not.
So, for those Americans who simply voted for Trump because they remember the 2019 economy, they are in for a surprise.
As the saying goes, personnel is policy. Right out of the gate, Donald Trump’s Cabinet and staff picks indicate that he is going to pursue his far-right agenda with ferocity. Trump has selected 7 of Project 2025’s authors, contributors, and advisory board members for top jobs.
Meanwhile, House Republicans’ first significant move since the election was for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to announce a bigoted trans bathroom ban specifically targeting incoming Congresswoman Sarah McBride (D-DE). This came after Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) launched a public campaign to push for this frivolous new rule.
Republicans clearly feel emboldened, and when they feel emboldened, their arrogance leads to missteps. Especially with their very slim Senate and House majorities, they won’t be able to get a lot done at the legislative level, so they will likely be focused on shameless political stunts, not delivering for the American people.
I documented every day of Trump’s presidency during his first term, so this is far from my first rodeo. I also spent the past year writing and making appearances on MSNBC warning about how Project 2025 directly aligns with Trump’s official Agenda 47. I’m clear-eyed about the threat of a second Trump term, but I also recognize the flaws within Trumpism.
One clear trend that has been consistent over the years is Trump’s tendency to overplay his hand. This time, he’ll have fewer constraints to limit his mistakes.
Trump’s first term didn’t reach its full potential of terrible policy in spite of Trump, not because of him. This time, Americans will get a version of President Trump that is unleashed and able to pursue many of his bad ideas without internal pushback from his team. Pushback will have to come from the voters and the courts. In 2026, the voters will surely have a lot to say.
This time, Trump won’t have a Chief of Staff like John Kelly, who constantly tried to keep Trump under control, or a Secretary of Defense like Mark Esper, who told Trump he couldn’t shoot protestors, or even an Attorney General like William Barr, who told Trump explicitly that his 2020 election lies were “bullshit.”
This time, Trump will be surrounded by a team where the number one qualification they have in common is loyalty.
To name a few, Trump has selected longtime advisor and Project 2025 partner Stephen Miller as Deputy Chief of Staff, Project 2025 contributor Tom Homan as Border Czar, key Project 2025 architect Russell Vought as OMB Director, Project 2025 author Brendan Carr as FCC Chairman, the now-withdrawn nomination of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) as Attorney General, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health & Human Services Secretary, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, Dr. Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and WWE Co-Founder Linda McMahon for Education Secretary. These picks show Trump is fully committed to pursuing his campaign promises.
Given Trump’s selection of Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, we will see mass deportations pursued, regardless of the humanitarian and economic costs. The power of tariffs lies totally within Trump’s control, so we will likely see blanket tariffs implemented, which, coupled with mass deportations, could tank the economy.
Even with Matt Gaetz withdrawing, his nomination showcased Donald Trump’s intent to pursue retribution against his political targets. Gaetz’s replacement, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, is also a Trump loyalist who defended him during his first impeachment and backed his 2020 election lies. Trump will also very likely pursue his plan to replace tens of thousands of civil servants with trained MAGA loyalists - which Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are on board with.
I think it’s important to expand on the immigration policies for a bit because I really think many voters failed to grasp the full scope of Trump’s plans.
Trump explicitly promised to detain millions of immigrants in camps using local police and the National Guard before deporting them, implement ideological screenings, end birthright citizenship, try to end DACA again, end Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants - including Haitians, end student visas for people participating in pro-Palestine protests, and expand on his previous administration’s Muslim ban. These are the kinds of dehumanizing policies Trump’s dehumanizing rhetoric has been seeking to justify.
Not only are these policies cruel and will produce heartbreaking images of families being separated across America, but none of those agenda items will lower prices for Americans or help improve their lives in any way. In fact, they will have the opposite impact.
With Trump free to pursue his destructive ideas and congressional Republicans likely moving in lockstep, this presents an opportunity for Democrats. Democrats and journalists have spent years warning about what Trump could bring in a second term. If Trump pursues all of it, then Americans will once and for all see the impact of Republican incompetence and amoral pursuit of power. And public opinion will have an impact.
Trump is not infallible. Take Matt Gaetz's withdrawal of his nomination for Attorney General, for example. Political gravity still exists. This is a crack in the show of strength Trump was trying to project out the gate with his unhinged appointments. A reminder that Trump is an impulsive, incompetent decision-maker, not a 4D chess player.
Trump always arrogantly overplays his hand. He doesn’t think things through. That was a trend throughout his presidency. His impulsive, foolish moves provide openings for his opposition. He’s not as strong as he claims to be.
Trump’s failings won’t be able to be blamed on a pandemic like we saw with how 2020 was perceived in hindsight, which has somehow been whitewashed from Trump’s presidency. The entire Republican Party will own Trump’s failings like they owned Bush’s in 08.
Democrats will not only have to do everything they can to protect vulnerable groups that are most impacted by Trump’s policies. They’ll also need to launch an effective messaging campaign that is more tactical, widespread, and relatable to Americans.
Every time Trump and Republicans do something depraved and authoritarian, like calling to investigate his political targets or focusing on a bigoted culture war issue, Democrats should message it in a way that points out they’re focused on self-interested nonsense instead of lowering prices and helping Americans. Democrats have to learn to play more to Americans’ self-interest, not just appeal to their decency.
Vice President Kamala Harris began doing this towards the end of her campaign, pointing out that Donald Trump is only looking out for himself, not Americans. But in order for this message to sink in for voters, it has to be repeated over the course of years.
There is reason to hope that the 2026 midterms could place a massive check on Trump in the form of House and Senate control if Democrats move correctly. And then, he’ll be a lame-duck president who can’t run again.
I want to make clear that I am not among those who think there will be no more elections. Elections are run at the state level, so revamping elections nationwide in a way that rigs them in Trump’s favor would take federal legislation, which is unlikely with this slim Republican majority. So we will have the 2026 midterm elections, and Trump will not run for a third term - the 22nd Amendment is written too clearly for even this right-wing Supreme Court to distort.
I know this is a more hopeful scenario, although still one riddled with struggle. However, I felt it important to outline the fact that although Trump has authoritarian aspirations, America won’t become an immediate autocracy overnight. It’s surely in decline already - with aspiring oligarchs like Elon Musk gaining increasing influence - but it’s not over. Autocracy doesn’t happen all at once. There are plenty of junctures to push us back from the brink.
We shouldn’t lose hope in our ability to win elections. We need to stay focused, continue to organize, and hold on to hope. It’s going to be four long years, but America isn’t over yet. We still have a republic, for now, if we can keep it.
This will be my only article this week. I’m going to spend some time unwinding with family for Thanksgiving. I hope you find some time to disconnect from the news, be present, and connect with people you love.
We have uncertain times ahead of us, but I’m hopeful we’ll make it through and come out the other side even stronger. Happy holidays! And remember, never let anyone steal your joy or disrupt your internal peace.
Thank you for this article and enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday with your family 🥰🥰💙💙