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Republican Senate candidate Mike Collins spent a good part of Thursday night’s Georgia Senate debate scribbling on a notepad. Senator Jon Ossoff told him that “if John Lewis were marching today from Selma to Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club.” The camera panned to Collins looking down, writing furiously and hunting for a comeback he couldn’t find.
That image ended up capturing the whole week’s debates.
On this week’s Live, I was joined by Charles Douglas, the Executive Director of Common Power, a voter turnout organization whose volunteers have already knocked thousands of doors this midterm season. His teams are canvassing everywhere from Maine to Alaska. He brings unique insights from real voters on the ground. Together we broke down five Senate debates across four key battleground states: Michigan, Iowa, Georgia, and Maine, which held two.
Charles opened with a thesis I fully agree with. The Democratic candidates are simply better. Democrats came in nimble, well-studied, and unbothered, while Republicans looked like soft incumbents who have never had to defend their ideas. Most Republicans on stage also tried to put daylight between themselves and Trump on the Iran war, tariffs, and immigration. I argued it’s far too late for that.
From there we went state by state. In Michigan, Mike Rogers ran an overtly Islamophobic strategy against Abdul El-Sayed, and El-Sayed answered by turning to the camera and talking about gas and groceries. Iowa was a debate from another universe, where the Trump-endorsed Republican spent some of the night explaining when she’d push back on Trump and the Democratic candidate, Josh Turek, walked a moderate line. Troy Jackson gave Maine the best line of the week about Susan Collins. And Ossoff put Mike Collins on trial.
We got off to a bumpy start. Our first stream crashed, and we had to restart. Then Charles's daughter popped in to explain that her own devices weren’t working either, which made her an incredibly relatable pod guest. The chat was also on fire with zingers, and we may need to start submitting them to the campaigns.
I appreciate those of you who tuned in live and contributed so much to the conversation. This is truly the best community on Substack. If you’re just catching it now, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments and smash that like button.
You can watch our full conversation above and read key takeaways below. And, as always, thank you for supporting independent media.
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The Through-Line: Democrats Came Ready, Republicans Scrambled To Run From Trump
Charles set the frame before we got to a single state. Across these races, one party looked like it had been preparing for this fight for years.
Democratic candidates are better. Charles named El-Sayed, Ossoff and Josh Turek, and threw in Randy Villegas’s debate in California for good measure. He said Democrats looked nimble and deeply informed about their opponents. Republicans looked flat-footed, scrambling through notes to remember what their staff told them to say.
Battle-tested versus untested. Charles said the Democratic candidates have been on Fox News and in hostile rooms for months, so they didn’t need notes. Their opponents looked like people who have never had their ideas challenged. That gap showed on every stage.
Everyone ran from Trump on the same three issues. I pointed out that the Republican candidates looked for daylight on the Iran war, tariffs, and immigration. Mike Rogers suddenly wants a Canada trade deal. If those are the only places you can separate yourself from Trump, it isn’t going to fly, and Democrats tied all three right back to him.
The Pelosi play Trump won’t allow. Charles said Republicans could try what Nancy Pelosi did, greenlighting vulnerable members to attack her so they could win. Chuck Schumer has run that kind of cover too. The catch, he said, is that Trump is too much of a narcissist to play along.
It’s all about him. I agreed that Trump punishes anyone who separates. Charles had shown me a Republican door hanger that was entirely about Trump, and Trump is running ads for himself during football games. He just posted Tom Cotton’s phone number over a Daylight Saving Time bill. He won’t allow Republicans to strategically criticize him.
Michigan: Rogers Went Islamophobic. El-Sayed Spoke To The People.
The Michigan debate was a brawl. Mike Rogers spent it trying to paint Abdul El-Sayed as an extremist, and El-Sayed kept dragging it back to the people watching.
The most contemptible moment of the week. I said it off the top: Rogers was overtly Islamophobic. He claimed El-Sayed’s donors had ties to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood without evidence, and falsely accused him of not condemning Hamas. He implied people close to El-Sayed were on a terrorist watch list. Charles noted he even brought El-Sayed’s mother into it. I noted that even Joe Scarborough, who has known Rogers for years, called his attacks Islamophobic. Rogers sold himself as a moderate, then sounded like a birther.
“It’s really about you.” El-Sayed’s best moment was reframing the fight. He told viewers Rogers wanted the night to be about the two of them, when the real issue is that gas and groceries cost too much. Charles said the timing was pure TV instinct: El-Sayed knew which camera’s light was on and turned straight to it.
Abdul GPT. Rogers called El-Sayed a “glitchy AI chatbot.” I said that’s a backhanded compliment, since his only attack was that El-Sayed is too smooth. Charles pointed to El-Sayed’s own one-liners, from “how many yachts, Mike?” to calling Rogers’s privacy stance the peeping Tom vote. He understands the clip economy.
Israel and the base. Charles asked whether El-Sayed tying the Iran war to Israel was about winning back his base. I said yes, and that it’s simply true, since reporting from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan showed Netanyahu pushed Trump into it. Rogers, meanwhile, said he’d welcome AIPAC money, which Charles and I agreed is unpopular on either side now.
A win on shaky ground. Charles thinks El-Sayed won but is on uncertain footing with parts of his base after sitting with Kamala Harris. He’s heard it most acutely from Palestinian Americans with family in the West Bank.
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Iowa: A Debate From Another Universe
Iowa was the calmest debate of the week and the strangest. The Trump-endorsed Republican spent much of it explaining when she’d stand up to Trump.
Hinson hedged hard. I said Ashley Hinson separated herself from Trump even further than Mike Rogers did in purple Michigan, which tells you exactly what Republicans fear right now. She said she’d be Trump’s ally when it’s important for Iowa but would push back on him. Then she added that he knows this because they talk regularly, which doesn’t exactly help her case.
Turek’s bet. I read his approach as a deliberate strategy. Democrats in Iowa will show up if they see a real shot, so he’s working to win over independents and moderate Republicans without talking down to Trump voters. Charles noted Turek flipped one of the reddest districts in the state, so he knows his voters.
Iowa plays by its own rules. Charles said decades of first-in-the-nation caucuses gave Iowa politicians a different sixth sense. The operative behind VAN, the canvassing tool his teams use on doors, came out of Iowa. He also called Rob Sand the next generation of politician, someone who can lift the whole ticket.
Clear-eyed and blue. Common Power’s fieldwork general manager Binh noted that’s why Rob Sand headlines the Iowa slate Common Power’s volunteers are working, even though some asked why the governor’s race leads. There’s nuance in every state. Blue no matter who still applies, and so does being clear-eyed about how each candidate wins.
Maine: Troy Jackson Wore A Suit And Won On Substance
Maine got two debates this week, and Charles and I agreed Troy Jackson won on substance. His delivery has some rough edges, but his lines about Susan Collins were searing.
Let Troy be Troy. Charles’s one critique was that he suited up. I floated a lumberjack jacket or a Glenn Youngkin sweater vest. Kidding aside, the real point was authenticity, and Jackson has plenty of it.
The arsonist. Jackson said Collins is like an arsonist who helped set the fire and then wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out. Charles called it maybe the line of the week and the most succinct description of Susan Collins there is. She proved it herself by insisting she only votes with Trump 72% of the time. As Charles put it, that’s still most of the time.
You can’t eat road salt. Collins bragged about getting road salt removed from the Canada tariff list, and Jackson asked what about everything else and said, you can’t eat road salt. He also said Mainers can’t pay their bills with a press release or a strongly worded letter.
Kavanaugh, again. When Collins claimed Jackson wants to pack the Supreme Court, he shot back that he wouldn’t have to if she hadn’t put Kavanaugh on it. A great line.
Troy Smackson. Charles shared a story about Jackson lighting up a critic in a campaign group chat so hard that people assumed his account was hacked. Charles said that willingness to call out BS is exactly what we need. The chat agreed, christening him Troy Smackson and declaring that Collins brought home the Spam, not the bacon.
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Georgia: Ossoff Put Mike Collins On Trial
We saved the haymakers for last. Jon Ossoff went harder than anyone expected, and Mike Collins had nothing to throw back.
A line for the ages. “If John Lewis were marching today from Selma to Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club.” Charles said there was no better place to say it, because John Lewis is Georgia. I laid out the context: Collins shared a video of white students taunting a Black student, and his son-in-law has white nationalist ties.
The Third Reich, in one breath. Ossoff said Collins hired half the Third Reich to staff his office and asked voters to imagine running for Senate while neo-Nazi propaganda is disseminated from your home. I marveled at how much he packed into a few lines, including accusing Collins of robbing his constituents to subsidize his donors. Charles compared it to a boxer who keeps landing punches while his opponent is already falling.
No notes for that. The camera kept cutting to Collins writing frantically while Ossoff spoke. I called it an asymmetry in talent. Charles summed up the week in one sentence: the Mikes got beat up, Rogers and Collins alike.
In good hands. Ossoff reminds me of Obama, and not only because of the cadence. You feel like you’re in good hands watching him, because he doesn’t get flustered and he delivers. Charles said his debate looked like produced television, with Ossoff delivering lines like an actor.
The 2028 conversation. I said this is why Black voters don’t play about Ossoff. Every time others treat talking about Black voters as optional, Ossoff brings up John Lewis and defends the community without hesitation. With South Carolina positioned early in the primary calendar, that makes him a real contender. Charles put it this way: a young Jewish man with Black community support who hits his opponents hard may be the best candidate for this moment.
Bottom Line
Democrats won these debates on substance, on style and on every front that matters. Affordability and the Iran war ran through all of them, and every Democrat tied both back to Trump. Republicans can try to distance themselves from him now. It’s too late, and he won’t let them anyway.
Charles closed on the point that matters most for the next four weeks. After a great debate, you need people on the streets asking their neighbors if they saw it. Door knocking is only going to matter more.
Charles is headed to Omaha, Nebraska, and back to Michigan next week, so we’ll have plenty to dig into. If you haven’t voted yet, vote early. Then volunteer, knock some doors, and do what you can.
If you want to knock doors alongside Charles and Common Power heading into the midterms, go to commonpower.org.
Support independent media and analysis that fearlessly tells the truth. If you have not yet become a paid subscriber to Ahmed Baba News, you can do that below. It truly means a lot.
