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The Trump Regime is flailing under the weight of its own incompetence, cruelty, and lawlessness. And the resistance to Trump is continuing to notch huge wins. Trump is weak, and he knows it. Let me explain.
I’m an independent journalist who has been covering Trump for over a decade now. I’ve made appearances on MS NOW and CNN, and my work has been cited in the New York Times and the Washington Post. I documented every day of Trump’s first term and was among the first to cover Project 2025 back in 2023.
And I’m here to say once again that Trump’s overreach is backfiring in major ways and undermining his authoritarian ambitions.
Don’t get me wrong, the Trump Administration is out of control. They’re indicting journalists, including my friend Don Lemon. They’re trying to indict Democrats, defending federal agents who kill Americans like Renee Good and Alex Pretti and lying about them. They’re starting baseless election probes to justify midterm interference, all while grifting at unimaginable levels.
This is all part of the authoritarian imagery Trump is trying to present. He wants us to be scared. But underneath the bravado is a deepening political weakness that is leading to real wins.
It was just announced that ICE has its withdraw from Minnesota. The Trump Admin has quietly withdrawn National Guard Troops from Chicago, Portland, and Los Angeles. Trump’s approval numbers remain in the toilet. Republicans are defying Trump in increasing numbers. And he’s losing the culture war. Let’s dive into the details.
The most recent win came today, as Border Czar Tom Homan announced that ICE will end its occupation of Minnesota and withdraw. Of course, we’ll have to see if they fully follow through, but this is a massive win. Minneapolis, Minnesota, became the center of Trump’s immigration crackdown, as ICE unleashed cruelty against American citizens and undocumented immigrants alike. They killed two people who were defending their neighbors. Ultimately, the people of Minnesota successfully repelled a federal occupation of their state.
Their tactics were sophisticated. From economic boycotts to whistle networks and license-plate databases to mutual aid pipelines and disciplined nonviolence, Minneapolis showed how community-based resistance is a powerful defense against authoritarianism. I did an interview on my Substack with someone on the ground in Minneapolis last week. You should go check it out if you want to learn more about their tactics and what the rest of the country can learn from them.
The backlash against ICE’s tactics spread nationwide, as we saw school walkouts and demonstrations across the country. Celebrities wearing ICE Out pins defined awards shows, and even apolitical people began to speak out. We were all told Trump won a cultural mandate in 2024. Within just one year, the culture and the country have already turned against him.
And beyond ICE backlash, there have been several other indicators of Trump’s weakness. Trump’s retribution probes have been plagued by incompetence and missteps. A grand jury just rebuffed the DOJ’s attempt to charge 6 Democrats who made that totally warranted video warning the military not to follow unlawful orders. Their other baseless attempts to prosecute their enemies, from James Comey to Letitia James, have also floundered. I think their targeting of Don Lemon, Georgia Fort, and other journalists will equally falter.
The American people are rejecting all of this.
Polls continue to place Trump’s approval in the 30s and low 40s. Trump’s approval among his own base, non-college voters, is collapsing. As Harry Enten at CNN put it, he’s underwater by 9 points. That’s a 23-point swing.
We just saw 6 Republicans in the House defy Speaker Johnson and vote to rebuke Trump’s tariffs. We saw GOP defiance in the Epstein file vote. While the GOP remains mostly sycophantic, more Republicans are feeling comfortable speaking out against Trump.
We also see special elections where Democrats are absolutely dominating, and Speaker Johnson’s already slim majority is getting even slimmer. After sweeping wins in the 2025 elections, we’re seeing 20-30 digit swings towards Democrats even in deep red districts in races in Louisiana and Texas.
Of course, some might say, does any of this matter? Won’t Trump just steal the midterms? I think he might try - either by deploying ICE to polling stations to intimidate voters or potentially even attempting to use federal agents to stop vote counting like he wanted to do in 2020, but I think he will ultimately fail. He’s lost too many institutions, and his unpopularity makes it less appetizing for folks to back his efforts.
The courts have been increasingly ruling against him, with over 150 cases where Trump’s actions have been blocked so far this term, according to the New York Times. And the Supreme Court would likely step in the event of a midterm effort to steal. The conservative court has a track record with the 2020 cases, and they’ve shown new signals of opposing some of Trump’s executive overreach, partially on independent agencies. Article 1, Section 4 of the Constitution is incredibly clear. The administration of elections falls to the states. There is no mechanism for Trump to try to “nationalize” elections.
I also think the turnout will be too big to rig. I have confidence Republicans are going to get bodied in the midterms, and there’s nothing they can do about it.
That’s my current assessment of the state of affairs. I’m still optimistic, in spite of all this insanity.
The vibe shift you’re feeling isn’t just vibes. It’s being reflected in election results, polling, actions from lawmakers, and Trump’s panicked behavior. Trump is weak and getting weaker.
The definitive story of this administration isn’t just about Trump’s abuses of power. It’s about the power of the people, and our recognition that we are stronger than we think, and he is weaker than he appears.
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